A friend asked me what I thought of the crisis in North Africa.
The answer, quite reasoned
The crisis in the Maghreb is linked with a motive: the rising price of basic necessities , especially bread, Tunisia and Algeria. Given the success of the revolt, which led to the end of the regime Ben Ali, Mubarak's opponents took to the streets trying to get the same result. In this case the reason was not only to the rising cost of food, but also that of human rights and democracy . It's been 43 years since Colonel Qaddafi seized power, well 30 death by the attack that led to Sadat to power Marshal Mubarak. The people had arrived at the height of endurance.
behind what happened in Egypt is an opposition not homogeneous: El Baradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is not only the only person to demand an end to the regime, but there are even the Muslim Brotherhood , the more fundamentalist wing. However, I do not think that there may be a hand of Al Qaeda in all these upheavals have happened as spontaneously. In all this the U.S. has been dormant and the EU did not even know what to do, despite being provided with a foreign minister.
Waiting to have a clearer picture on Libya, and always keeping an eye on what's happening in Yemen and Bahrain, where he was canceling the opening Grand Prix of Formula 1 World Championship this year, we spend a moment to consider our position, the Italian or Western in general. how to behave now? As regards Egypt, Mubarak has been a key ally for the West and a great man of peace . Do not forget that after a phase of war against Israel last being that of Yom Kippur, Sadat and Mubarak first then have kept the peace in the Middle East, becoming important actors in all the diplomatic crisis between Israel and its other neighbors. The important is to understand those who come after Mubarak and if you move from dictatorship to democracy . The first question is not resolved decided: today there are soldiers, but among the teams in contention are the supporters of El Baradei's Islamic fundamentalists, but also the important thing is that anyone will to power, performing the same peace of mind in relations between Egypt and Israel. As for the arrival of democracy, this step will be extremely difficult to implement: the military took power have resolved all the constitutional prerogatives, and then it will be difficult path towards democracy.
As regards Libya, we are here to be Italian further called into question. In this situation, I take a strong condemnation of the regime as it is liquidating the situation. But we must analyze the strength and the Jamahirriya Libyan in Italy, which are enormous: Gaddafi holds shares of Unicredit, FIAT and Juventus FC, do not forget also the contracts made for bilateral involvement in businesses, infrastructure and especially of vital importance for Italy, in energy and raw materials. What to do? Italy, being in a situation quite complex, can not take a stand against Gaddafi, let alone against the insurgents, but maintains a wise equidistant from the two players in the game but at the same time condemning what is happening in the streets of Benghazi. In any case, what we can hope for is that, after him, there might be someone who can ensure continuity with the previous scheme in respect of trade agreements, energy and immigration to Rome.
But one aspect that everyone is overlooking is that these days influence that Libya has in recent years in sub-Saharan Africa as Gaddafi has invested heavily in the countries of the continent by taking advantage of its exports to the West ; l 'Ethiopia, which seems to be a regional power, very strong, living the dangerous influence of the leafminer and Somali Islamists and Eritrea, South Africa is on the opposite side of the continent and controls, although with difficulty, the southern part. In any case, Libya was to have a strong influence on a large number of countries - so much so that the leadership of the African Union - who thought they had found a guide that could revive the economy and their fortunes. This political upheaval, if goes through, will lead to a drastic reversal. Who can give hope to the Dark Continent? The West certainly not. The new leadership will certainly not native, the less will be assigned to one of the former colonial powers or the United States, strongly discredited by Kennedy in here (Obama included). Africa's future may be in the hands of China, thanks to its strong economic influence and that in the sixties and seventies also sought to demonstrate his political strength.
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