table below shows a section of the book recently output "Plan B 4.0 - Mobilizing to Save Civilization" by Lester Brown, the guru of the environmentalist world view. The book is also available online at this address
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Plan B is the alternative to "businnes as usual", the maintenance of this contemporary model as if nothing was happening. Its aim is to shape the world from a direct path to the decline and total collapse to a new scenario in which food security can be found, and civilization can sustain itself over time. Just as the causes underlying the current food crisis go far beyond the agricultural system, the answer to the problem must be more specific. In the past, the Ministry of Agriculture alone could be responsible for agricultural research, provide credit to farmers and follow all those other activities which we imagine to be related to the powers of this institution. Today, however, to ensure food security we must mobilize all parts of our society.
For this reason, the Plan B is far more ambitious than anything humanity has done to date, an unprecedented initiative nor dimension, nor urgency and importance. It is divided into four objectives:
lower net emissions of CO2 by 80% by 2020;
stabilize population World at under 8 billion;
fight poverty,
restore the health of ecosystems, including land under this definition, aquifers, forests, grasslands and fishing areas.
This plan is ambitious because it is not based on what is politically feasible, but on scientific fact.
The project to slash emissions implies a radical improvement in energy efficiency at the global level, massive investment in renewable energy development, the block of deforestation and billions of new trees to be planted. Plan B describes, essentially, a transition from an economy based on oil, coal and natural gas to one based on wind, solar and geothermal energy.
The objective of the Plan B in terms of population is to stabilize the population to 8 billion people or below. But not because I believe that the
global population will reach 9.2 billion and a half ever in 2050 as planned by the United Nations. Most of those 2.4 billion people in more than today are destined to be born in developing countries, places where the basic resources such as land and water resources are already in critical condition and hunger is increasing. Many of the systems that sustain human life in these countries have started to decline, if not complete collapse.
The question is not so if the population growth is likely to stop before reaching 9 billion and two, but if you stop it will be broadcast worldwide a rapid decrease in the number of people per household, or if you leave increased mortality, the task of limiting population growth. Plan B covers the choice that provides for reduced fertility.
Eradicating poverty is a priority for three reasons. First is the key to accelerate the global transition to smaller families, allowing access to all women of childbearing age, and in every corner of the world, health care, assistance and services family planning. It also helps to bring poor countries into the international community, allowing them to make their contribution to global issues such as climate stabilization. When people do not know if they will have to eat the next day, it is very difficult to devote time and energy to climate change. Third, the fight against poverty is a human and humanitarian gesture. A civil society can also be recognized by its ability to care for others.
The fourth aspect of the Plan B is responsible for restoring and protecting natural ecosystems that allow the existence of the human race. This implies the protection of soil erosion, deforestation ban, the promotion of reforestation, regeneration of fish stocks and putting into the field of a global effort to protect groundwater resources by improving the efficiency of water use. Until we can reverse the degradation of these ecosystems is very unlikely that we can prevent the rise of hunger.
Plan B is an integrated plan with four goals interdependent. We can not, for example, stabilize the population without the eradication of poverty. At the same time, we can not restore the ecosystems of the planet without the public to stabilize climate, stabilize the climate and not without the balance of population growth. Nor can we ever overcome poverty without restoring the earth's ecosystems. Our plan to save civilization as ambitious as it is urgent.
success depends on our ability to act with a speed comparable only to the emergencies of war, the redevelopment of the global energy system as it was for the industrial system of the United States in 1942, after the 'attack on Pearl Harbor
. Within months, the United States became a country in a giant car manufacturer manufactures aircraft, tanks and warships. The conversion we need is not possible without a radical change in our system of priorities and values. And this can not happen without sacrifices. It should be recalled that in 1942 the key to the success of the industrial conversion ban was maintained for almost three years of the sale of new cars.
We are facing a tremendous challenge, but we can afford to be optimistic. All the problems we face can be solved with existing technologies. And almost everything that can be done to translate the decline in the global economy towards a sustainable path has already been achieved in one or more countries. For example, more than 30 countries that have almost stabilized their population growth.
Some technologies on the market, therefore, allow us to deal with already themes of the Plan B. With regard to energy, for example, we can get more out of a wind turbine with the latest generation of an old oil well. The new plug-in hybrid vehicles
about to be launched as the Chevrolet Volt can travel up to 240 km with less than 4 liters of gasoline. Energy economy in about 2020 by Plan B, the majority of cars in circulation in the United States will be plug-in hybrids or fully electric car and will be mainly to supply the electricity generated by wind farms at a cost below 30 cents a dollar a gallon.
The world is taking its first steps towards a revolution in lighting. A few years ago we realized that a compact fluorescent could give the same amount of light of the old incandescent bulbs, using just one quarter of energy. Very good news. Now, we are learning to use a more advanced technology: LEDs, light emitting diodes that light up using only 15% of the energy needed in an incandescent bulb. In addition, motion sensors can turn off the lights where not required, while other sensors are able to tailor the light output in response to the presence or absence of sunlight. Switch from incandescent bulbs to LEDs and install motion sensors and light sensitive lights can reduce the amount of electricity used for lighting up to 90%.
In Plan B the existence of models at the national level, Denmark today gets more than 20% of its electricity from wind and plans to reach more than 50%. There are 75 million Europeans whose homes are powered by wind. Twenty-seven million Chinese homes have hot water thanks to solar heating on the roof. Iceland, a country where 90% of homes are heated using geothermal energy, has practically eliminated the coal from the home heating system. In the Philippines, 26% of energy comes from geothermal plants.
The world after the Plan B might look like the mountains reforested in South Korea for 65% of the land here, once bare and desolate land, virtually devoid of trees, have been reforested with success. Floods and soil erosion are just a memory, with the Korean campaign returned the balance and environmental stability. In the United States during the last 25 years it was decided to decrease the extent of cultivated fields, mostly at high risk of erosion of 10%, by allocating the remaining percentage to less aggressive tillage practices: the result is for now reduced erosion by 40% and at the same time an increase of cereal harvest of about one-fifth.
Some of the most innovative examples of leadership come from the city.
Curitiba, Brazil, has started a transformation of the transport system in 1974 in the following decades, the traffic fell by 30% while the population has actually doubled. Amsterdam has a diversified transport system in which approximately 40% of all urban trips are made by bike. In Paris, the plan for the diversification of transport, which assigns a prominent role to the bike, promises to reduce car traffic by 40%. In London, the machines that want to go to the center must pay a tax, whose proceeds are reinvested in the expansion of public transport.
The challenge is not only in the construction of a new economy, but in doing so at a speed comparable to a war effort. It is necessary to avoid exceeding the point of no return ecosystems before the current economic model begins to collapse irreversibly. Participate in the establishment of a world economy more stable is an extraordinary challenge, as will be the extraordinary quality of life that we can get. A world where population growth has stopped, the forests have begun to expand, and the levels of carbon dioxide emissions are decreasing, it is within our reach.
